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Through the involvement of a combination of early detection of significant trend changes coupled with fast-following action steps using StockCharts, technical Analysis provides excellent visualization techniques for both discovery and decision-making, and is valid for stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETF’s, and indexes.
At best, forecasts actually produce lagging results, because they cannot detect future trend changes.
The data employed in modeling efforts contain considerable noise which conceals the underlying signals of interest.
Time intervals commonly employed are far too short to contain adequate replication of the features (trend changes) of interest.
Modeling inevitably requires a number of simplifying steps, which are commonly linear in nature, while real world data mimic other geometric shapes: bell-shapes, S-shapes, bathtubs, and exponential curves.
Even validation efforts have their own set of problems: back-testing is not the gold standard.
So what can one realistically expect given the wild and wooly world of market timing? In the speaker’s view, a good alternative is to switch from trying to predict the future to early detection of what is actually happening, coupled with fast following decision strategies.
Event Registration: https://westlakelibrary.org/event/4241611